Agriculture is India’s biggest employer but the sector has for years been wilting under the weight of rising heat and droughts. What is the way forward?
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Maitreyee Boruah
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Farmers sow millet on a field in Odisha. Roli Srivastava/The Migration Story
The saying “As you sow, so shall you reap,” which appears in the Agriculture and Food Management: Sector of the Future segment of the latest Economic Survey 2024-2025 released ahead of the budget last Friday, serves as a warning about the significant challenges posed by climate extremes on the agricultural sector and the urgent need for mitigation strategies.
Although this adage is used in the Economic Survey to reflect on the quality and accessibility of seeds for farmers, the section on agriculture and food management periodically emphasises the impact of erratic weather conditions on the farming community. It highlights the need for systematic changes that could help address these challenges, calling for climate-resistant agricultural techniques.
The attention to agriculture and the impact of unpredictable rain, droughts and floods on farm-dependent livelihoods is crucial in India.
After all, India’s agricultural sector remains the country’s biggest employer - accounting for 46.1% of all working Indians - and contributes 16% to the country’s GDP.
The climate crisis the sector faces is already disrupting lives and livelihoods. In a report published in 2023, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) stated that between 2015 and 2021, India lost 33.9 million hectares of crops due to excess rains and an additional 35 million hectares due to drought. The International Labour Organisation notes that the country most affected by heat stress is India and that by 2030, the country is projected to see a substantial 5.8% decline in working hours – equivalent to 34 million full-time jobs – due to heat stress. Most of the impact will be felt by the agricultural sector, the ILO research noted.
A HISTORY OF DROUGHTS
More than two-thirds of India's agricultural land is at risk of drought, government data shows, and the economic survey calls for region-specific strategies to effectively mitigate drought risk.
While India has recorded droughts over the past century, the pattern has changed.
The country recorded severe meteorological droughts in 1965, 1987, and 2009, which caused significant agricultural distress in states such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. The country also experienced droughts due to weak monsoons in 1972, 1979, 1982, and 2002, according to Drought Atlas of India, 1901–2020.
But in recent decades, India has witnessed a rise in the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts, which is projected to be further exacerbated by climate change, the Drought Atlas of India noted.
The drought of 2002 is considered the worst in the last century, marked as the most severe due to a total failure of monsoon rains, receiving only 64 mm by August that year. Its impact on people, livestock, and natural resources was profound in states like Haryana, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Kerala. Some chronically drought-prone states in India are Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha, according to the National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand.
Studies have shown India’s vulnerability to droughts is linked its reliance on the monsoon for both agriculture as well for groundwater recharge. The southwest monsoon accounts for 80% of the country's annual rainfall and is the primary source of water for agriculture and groundwater recharge, according to research that has appeared in WIREs and Nature Geoscience respectively.
The weakening southwest monsoon, warming in the Indian Ocean and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have also contributed to the country’s drought vulnerability, stated Drought Atlas of India, 1901-2020.
RISING HEAT AND SCARCE WATER
According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MOES), India’s average temperatures have increased by 0.7 °C since the beginning of the 20th century. By the end of the 21st century, these temperatures are expected to rise by approximately 4.7 to 5.5 °C.
This increase in temperatures is part of a global trend, as the world became 1.47 °C warmer in 2024 compared to the late 19th century. As temperatures in India continue to rise, the country will likely experience more extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts, flooding, and melting glaciers.
Adding to the impact of the country's drought-vulnerability is not just rising heat but also inadequate irrigation. Only about 55% of the net sown area receives irrigation in India, according to the economic survey. But it also shows progress: between 2016 and 2021, India saw a substantial increase in both the coverage and intensity of irrigation, it notes. The proportion of irrigated area increased from 49.3% to 55% of the gross cropped area (GCA), while irrigation intensity rose from 144.2 % to 154.5%.
A large portion of agricultural land depends on rain-fed systems, making it particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation, the Economic Survey notes.
Much of the irrigation-related dependence is also because of the dominant crops on Indian fields, with water-guzzling varieties preferred over hardy crops that need less water and can withstand droughts and floods.
Vinay K Sehgal from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute and Sanjoy K Bandyopadhyay from the Borlaug Institute for South Asia highlight that extreme heat leads to drier soil and decreases its productivity due to reduced microbial activity and the buildup of salts. These climatic conditions increase the demand for water while simultaneously reducing its supply, resulting in the use of poor-quality water for irrigation. Higher temperatures also contribute to a rise in pests, which leads to increased pesticide usage. This directly impacts crop production because of wilting.
Additionally, crop yields tend to be of lower quality, characterised by shrivelled grains and scalded fruits.
WAY FORWARD
Kamal Kumar Tanti, the Director of Research and Development at the Centre for Environment and Climate Action Foundation (CECAF) in Guwahati, Assam, told The Migration Story that the negative effects of heat on key agricultural practices, particularly the cultivation of wheat, rice, and pulses, are becoming increasingly evident.
"In many regions, traditional planting seasons are being disrupted, which makes it increasingly difficult for farmers to adapt to changing weather conditions. This disruption affects essential processes such as pollination, grain filling, and overall plant growth. The financial damage caused by heat and drought related to climate change is significant. Research indicates that India is losing millions of dollars each year due to extreme weather events," Tanti said.
Failure to adapt to changing climate conditions would fuel more distress migration in the years to come.
In 2020, an estimated 3,856,000 people were internally displaced in India due to disasters, including droughts, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.
Research shows that households whose main income source is labour (either agricultural or non-agricultural) have higher migration rates compared to entrepreneurial households. The 2011 Socio Economic and Caste Census shows that 56% of households in rural India do not own any agricultural land.
A 2023 report by London-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) linked rainfall deficit to farmer suicides in India, stating recurring droughts affect health and emotional wellbeing of farmers. The report called for new interventions such as early warning systems and also insurance policies that can offer protection against extreme weather.
Studies cited in the Economic Survey suggest that a potential 2°C increase in annual temperature and a 7% rise in annual rainfall by 2099 could lead to an 8-12 % decline in agricultural productivity in India.
The survey lists several adaptation measures such as enhancing water efficiency, managing soil health and nutrients, providing crop insurance, offering credit support, strengthening value chains and supporting organic and natural farming practices as the way forward.
Also, analysts point at the need to promote water conservation more aggressively and strategically.
Tanti suggested the introduction of advanced irrigation techniques, such as drip and sprinkler systems. "The government needs to support initiatives for rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge. Additionally, there should be enhanced land and water management practices to improve water availability in historically drought-prone areas."
He also emphasised the need for regulations on the cultivation of water-intensive crops in regions with scarce water resources, while encouraging the growth of drought-resistant crops such as pulses and millets.
The Indian government has noted that awareness and capacity building is critical among all the stakeholders from farmers to policy makers for overall climate change adaptation and that community-driven programmes and village institutions' involvement are critical.
The Migration Story has in these columns documented community-led stories of resilience - from a parched village in Rajasthan tapping the rural jobs guarantee scheme to build a wall to channel arrest rainwater and channel it to their bone-dry farms to a village in Bihar betting on solar panels to operate water pumps and bring migrants back home.
Odisha is promoting and growing hardy millet crop, and is a widely documented case study for this climate resilient initiative, Andhra Pradesh is promoting natural farming, women in Uttar Pradesh are learning climate-resilient farming techniques from nonprofits. And watershed programmes in Maharashtra have helped improve groundwater levels, and farm yields.
The economic survey mentions regions such as north-western India, “where heat-tolerant wheat varieties have seen widespread adoption to alleviate the effects of heat stress". It also notes that in the last financial year, the government held demonstrations of climate-resilient technology packages in 121 vulnerable districts.
But these initiatives, heartening as they may be, are not widely adopted or implemented, their success often limited to a specific region, analysts point out.
The economic survey acknowledges the challenges but speaks of right policies that would tackle water scarcity, and goes on to envisage a growth in the agriculture sector that would potentially absorb surplus labour, give a boost to agro-based entrepreneurship and also continue to ensure food security in India. “The possibilities are both exciting and limitless,” the survey notes.
Maitreyee Boruah is a Guwahati-based independent journalist
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